LandWatch State of Monterey County Report 1998

3.2 Population and Population Forecasts

The county's population has increased 33% since 1980 (Table 3) and is projected by the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) to grow another 39% by 2020 to a population over 536,000. Buildout of city and County general plans would allow for an increase of 55%, or about 600,000 people. AMBAG's population forecasts show that 83% of the growth will be in cities. The general plans, which typically do not have a time frame for "buildout" (the condition expected to occur when general plans are fully realized and reach their planned maximum population), show that 75% of the growth will be in cities. Depending on whether AMBAG's forecast or the general plans' estimation is accurate, we can expect approximately 17 to 25% of the growth to occur in the County rather than in existing cities where services are available and can be provided most efficiently.

Table 3--Population Growth, 1980-1998

Jurisdiction

1980(1)
1998(2)
Percent Increase

Cities

205,400
283,600
38%

Unincorporated

85,044
102,600
21%

Total

290,444
386,200
33%

Table 4--Population Forecasts, 1998-2020 and 1998 to Buildout

Jurisdiction

1998
2020(3)
Percent Increase
Buildout(4)
Percent Increase

Cities

283,600
408,949
44%
443,664
56%

Unincorporated

102,600
127,660
24%
155,100
51%

Total

386,200
536,609
39%
598,764
55%


1998 Table of Contents:

1.0 Executive Summary

1.1 Findings
1.2 Recommendations
1.3 Areas of Future Study

2.0 Summary of Indicators

3.0 State of Monterey County 1998

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Population and Population Forecasts
3.3 Development&emdash;Approved and Pending Projects
3.4 Roads and Highways
3.5 Water Supply
3.6 Water Quality
3.7 Wastewater Treatment
3.8 Air Quality
3.9 Agricultural Land
3.10 Nonagricultural Land&emdash;Open Space
3.11 Affordable Housing
3.12 Schools
3.13 Economy
3.14 Rare, Threatened, and Endangered Species
3.15 General Plans

4.0 References


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