LandWatch State of Monterey County Report 1998
1.1 Executive Summary: Findings

Introduction
State of Monterey County 1998 is the first annual, comprehensive assessment of land use, the environment, and infrastructure for Monterey County. Prepared by LandWatch Monterey County, a nonprofit, public benefit corporation dedicated to promoting better land use planning, State of Monterey County 1998 provides an integrated overview of population trends, land use patterns, traffic conditions, and various features broadly affecting the environmental health and economic vitality of Monterey County.

Conclusions
State of Monterey County 1998 reveals significant inconsistencies among population projections, infrastructure capacities, and the general plans of Monterey County and the cities. Even if no further projects were approved today, Monterey County would still add 7,520 residential units, 685 hotel units, and about 1.5 million square feet of commercial, industrial, and visitor-oriented development. This growth would severely exacerbate the county's already serious problems of water supply, water quality, and traffic. The current population exceeds existing infrastructure capacity, including roads, water supplies, and schools, in many parts of the county.

Population growth and demand for housing are forcing development beyond the service boundaries of cities into relatively inexpensive farmland, particularly in the Salinas Valley.

Low-density, leapfrog development encourages inefficient use of land, increased commuting, and consequently more crowded highways.

At the same time, housing costs throughout Monterey County are among the highest in the nation, creating a serious lack of affordable housing for many residents. Housing data are out-of-date or unavailable, hampering analysis. The most recent Regional Housing Needs plan was completed in 1990. Since then, no agency has prepared a comprehensive review of this report in relation to actual housing construction to assess whether housing needs for the county have been met.

Solving these problems and developing a rational plan to manage growth in a manner that will maintain the quality of life in Monterey County will require much greater cooperation and coordination among Monterey County and the cities. Even if there were agreement on how to address the demand for new infrastructure, the planning, funding, and construction process would take a minimum of five to ten years to complete. Moreover, developing new water supplies, water treatment facilities, and roads is costly. There is little indication that the voting populace will approve additional taxes necessary for these improvements without more consensus on the future direction of growth and development countywide.

Trends
State of Monterey County 1998 reveals the following trends:

• Population Trends. Monterey County's population is projected to rise dramatically in the next 20 years, increasing 39%, from a current population of 386,200 to a projected population in 2020 of 537,000. In 1997 alone, Monterey County's population grew approximately 4.7%.
  
  
• Urban Sprawl. Much of this population growth will occur in the Salinas Valley where urban sprawl (commercial, industrial, and residential developments) will replace farmland and open space.
  
  
• Approved and Pending Projects. Monterey County and the cities have either approved or are considering the approval of 15,400 residential units, 1,145 hotel/motel units, facilities for 6,800 California State University at Monterey Bay (CSUMB) students, and 5 million square feet of commercial/industrial projects in the next five years. Development of 1,226 lots of record on the Monterey Peninsula (included in the 15,400 residential units) depend on the availability of additional water. Buildout of general plans or reuse of Fort Ord is not included in this analysis.

  Table 1--Total Approved/Unconstructed and Pending Projects

  Project Status	Dwelling Units	Commercial/ Industrial Sq. Ft	Hotel Rooms
  Approved/Unconstructed	7,520	1,450,210	685
  Action Pending	7,880	3,607,072	460
  Total	15,400	5,057,282	1,145

• Traffic Congestion. Highway congestion is measured on a scale of Level of Service (LOS) A to F, with F being the worst. The Monterey County Regional Transportation Plan has a goal to attain and maintain LOS C for the roadway network. Short-range goals are to allow no degradation below LOS D for urban roads now operating at LOS D or better; no degradation below LOS C for rural roads now operating at LOS C or better; and no degradation below existing LOS for all other roads.
  
  Of the 14 major highway and road segments evaluated, three are at LOS D, four at LOS E, five at LOS F, portions of one at LOS D and F, and one at LOS E and D. Approved and pending dwelling units, expected growth at CSUMB, and visitor-serving projects would add 167,021 daily trips to already congested highways, an increase of 16% over 1997 daily trips.
  
  In 1995, about 2,600 employed residents, representing 1.6% of total county workforce, commuted to jobs outside Monterey County. By 2020, about 11,000 residents, or 4.9% of the total workforce, are expected to commute to work outside of the county.
  
  
• Water Supply. The major population areas of the county have serious water supply problems. Population growth on the Monterey Peninsula surpassed the number of people that can be served under California American Water Company's (Cal-Am) production limits in the early 1990s. The Salinas Valley Ground Water Basin is overdrafted by 40,000 to 50,000 acre feet per year, or approximately 10% of the basin's safe yield. In North Monterey County, annual water extractions exceed average annual recharge by 100%. Approved and pending projects would require about 1,400 acre feet per year from Cal-Am and about 700 acre feet per year from other water supplies. CSUMB will require 850 acre feet per year from the Salinas Ground Water Basin.
  
  
• Loss of Agricultural Lands. Since 1982, the Board of Supervisors has redesignated 1,968 acres of farmland to urban uses. Of the 7,520 dwelling units approved yet unconstructed, 68% will be built on farmland. All these units will be built on farmland within cities. Some of the approved and unconstructed units will be built in the unincorporated area, but none of these will be on farmland. Of the 7,880 dwelling units under consideration but not yet approved, 61% would be built on farmland with 24% in cities and 37% in the unincorporated area. Close to 4.6 million square feet of commercial/industrial development--either approved and unconstructed, or pending --would be built on farmland.
  
  
• Affordable Housing. A key provision of California Housing Element Law is that each jurisdiction is responsible for providing housing that is affordable to all income groups. Data on low-income housing stocks is not readily available from most public agencies responsible for tracking housing. Preliminary data indicate that the supply of housing for low-income families is extremely limited.
  
  
• Schools. Of the 24 K-12 school districts countywide, 11 are beyond capacity and only four have facilities funded for construction.
  
  
• General Plans. The Monterey County General Plan is 16 years old. Most of its area plans are ten or more years old. Five city general plans are ten or more years old, with two of these currently being updated. State law requires planning agencies to "prepare, periodically review, and revise, as necessary, the general plan" [Government Code section 65103 (a)].

On the positive side:

• Economy. The gross sales of agricultural products increased by 17% in 1997 to total $2.2 billion. In 1996, tourism throughout Monterey County was valued at $1.4 billion, about 2.4% of statewide tourism spending. Retail sales grew by 7%, or $156 million from 1995 to 1996. Monterey County added 3,800 jobs in 1997. In 1997, $224 million was spent on the construction of new single-family residences, an increase of $27 million; $27 million on the construction of multi-family homes, an increase of $1 million; and $67 million on construction of new non-residential, commercial, industrial, and other non-residential developments, a decrease of $11 million. Most new non-residential development was in Salinas ($27 million) and unincorporated Monterey County ($23 million).
  
  
• Wastewater. Existing wastewater treatment facilities throughout Monterey County have excess capacity.
  
  
• Air Quality. Air quality has improved in the past ten years. However, additional automobile emissions associated with projected population growth are expected to worsen air quality after 2020 unless additional air pollution controls are implemented.
  
  
• Open Space. Monterey County has approximately 510,500 acres of open space in federal forests and wilderness areas, over 191,000 acres in military property, 16,000 acres of state parks, 21,000 acres of County and regional parks, and 26,500 acres of land in trusts and other reserves. These lands total 765,000 acres.