LandWatch State of Monterey County Report 1999
1.5 Trends

The following trends are documented in this 1999 report:

• Population
• Urban Sprawl
• Approved and Pending Projects
• Loss of Agricultural Land
• Traffic Congestion
• Transportation Funding
• Water Supply
• Water Quality
• Affordable Housing
• General Plans

Population
Monterey County's population is projected to rise dramatically in the next 20 years, increasing by 37%, from a current population of 391,300 to a projected population of 537,000 in the year 2020. In 1997, Monterey County's population grew approximately 4.7%. The County's 1998 growth rate was 2.7%, making Monterey County the third fastest growing county in California. Much of this population growth is projected to occur in the Salinas Valley.

Urban Sprawl
Existing planning practices encourage the inefficient use of land. Currently, 159 acres of land are converted to urban uses for every 1,000 new residents. If this rate remains constant through the year 2020, an additional 23,800 acres of land will be committed to urban development. Monterey County's rate of urban land expansion is significantly higher than in neighboring San Benito, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Cruz counties.

Approved and Pending Projects
Monterey County and the cities either have approved or are considering approval of 15,410 residential units, 8.6 million square feet of commercial/ industrial projects, and 1,418 hotel/motel units. Development of 1,226 lots of record on the Monterey Peninsula (included in the 15,410 residential units) depends on the availability of additional water. The project list includes projects not previously documented in the State of Monterey County 1998 --an additional 3.6 million square feet of commercial/industrial projects. The project list excludes the projected buildout of the general plans, the reuse of Fort Ord, and facilities for 6,800 students at California State University Monterey Bay (CSUMB). The water and traffic impacts resulting from the CSUMB facilities are included because the facilities have been approved or are pending.

The approved/unconstructed and pending projects throughout the county will add more dwelling units than those which have already been built within the City of Monterey and 28 times more commercial and industrial square footage than the Edgewater Shopping Center in Sand City.

Table 1 -- Approved and Unconstructed Projects by Jurisdiction

Table 2--Pending Projects by Jurisdiction

Loss of Agricultural Lands
Existing planning practices encourage the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. Between 1984 and 1998, 3,348 acres of agricultural land, including over 2,300 acres classified as prime, were converted to urban land uses. At risk of conversion to urban land uses are 2,250 acres of agricultural land, including 1,650 acres classified as prime, which are within the spheres of influence of the five Salinas Valley cities.

Approved but unconstructed projects
The approved/unconstructed projects have either removed, or will soon remove, over 1,400 acres of land from agricultural production. Of the 8,167 dwelling units in the approved/ unconstructed category, 71% will be built on farmland. Of these units, 99.5% will be on farmland within cities, and .5% will be on farmland within the unincorporated area.

Pending projects
The dwelling units in the pending category, if approved, would convert 1,200 acres of productive agricultural land to urban built-up uses. Of the 7,243 dwelling units under consideration but not yet approved, 55% would be built on farmland. Of these, 22% are in the cities, and 78% are in the unincorporated area.

Almost 7.9 million square feet or 92% of the commercial and industrial projects on the approved/ unconstructed and pending lists would be on farmland.

Traffic Congestion
Traffic congestion on local and state roadways is getting worse. Highway congestion is measured on a scale of Level of Service (LOS) A to F, with F being the worst. Of the 15 state highway segments evaluated, four are at LOS D, one is at LOS E, and seven are at LOS F. Of the 18 local arterials evaluated, nine are at LOS C, seven are at LOS D, and one is at LOS F. Approved and pending dwelling units, expected growth at CSUMB, and visitor-serving projects would add 157,046 daily trips to already congested highways, an increase of 15% over 1997 daily trips.

In 1995, measuring on a "net" basis (in-commuters minus out-commuters), about 2,600 employed residents, representing 1.6% of the total county workforce, commuted to jobs outside Monterey County. By 2020, again on a "net" basis, about 11,000 residents, or 4.9% of the total workforce, are expected to commute to work outside of the county.

Transportation Funding
Of the $388,645,000 estimated to be available for capacity increasing road and highway projects in the next 20 years, the Transportation Agency for Monterey County has programmed 88% for the Prunedale Bypass and Route 101 interchanges and operational improvements near Prunedale. There is no funding for improvements to Route 1 north of Castroville, Route 1 near Seaside, Route 68 west and east of Highway 1, Route 183 north of Salinas, Route 218 from Highway 1 to Fremont, as well as Fremont Boulevard, Blanco Road, and Reservation Road. All these roads are at LOS D or below. Consequently, it becomes increasingly important for land use decisions to recognize transportation funding constraints.

Water Supply
The major population areas of the county have serious water supply problems. Population growth on the Monterey Peninsula surpassed the number of people who can be served under California American Water Company's (Cal-Am) production limits in the early 1990s. The Salinas Valley Ground Water Basin is overdrafted by 40,000 to 50,000 acre-feet per year, or approximately 10% of the basin's safe yield. In North Monterey County, annual water extractions exceed average annual recharge by 100%. Approved and pending developments would require 1,065 acre-feet of water per year from Cal-Am, between 4,762 and 6,204 acre-feet per year from the Salinas Valley Ground Water Basin, and 736 acre-feet per year from other sources. Aside from 850 acre-feet per year for CSUMB, most of the projects requiring water from the Salinas Valley Ground Water Basin would consume less water than the agricultural uses they are replacing. However, once water is committed to urban growth, a long-term entitlement is created, and dry-year demand is increased.

Water Quality
Groundwater use in the Salinas Valley is adversely affected by nitrate contamination. A 1998 report from the Monterey County Water Resources Agency states that of 262 water wells sampled, 100 wells (38%) had nitrate concentrations exceeding the safe drinking water standard. Nitrate concentrations are expected to rise in future years because of the 40- to 60-year time lag between changes in nitrate loading at the surface and corresponding changes in groundwater.

Affordable Housing
All available data indicate that the supply of housing for lower-income persons is extremely limited, and adequate affordable housing is not being constructed as growth proceeds. No agency is responsible for tracking affordable housing countywide. No consistent method is in place to quantify the construction of affordable housing by the various jurisdictions over a specified period of time. The Monterey County and the twelve cities must collaborate to develop a consistent method to track the construction of affordable housing and the accomplishments of existing programs.

General Plans
State law requires planning agencies to "prepare, periodically review, and revise, as necessary, the general plan." Numerous cities in the county are in the process of updating their general plans. The cities of King City, Marina, Salinas, and Sand City are at various stages of the update process. The cities of Carmel, Monterey, and Soledad will consider initiating a general plan update during the 1999/2000 Fiscal Year. The County of Monterey has hired a consultant to develop a work program to define the scope of a general plan update, and it is anticipated that the County of Monterey will initiate a general plan update during the 1999/2000 fiscal year. The Monterey County General Plan is 16 years old and most of its area plans are ten or more years old.